[SMM Analysis] When I Asked How Deep Seek 2025 Hydrogen Energy Would Develop?

Recently, an AI named Deep Seek has sparked widespread discussion. Many clients recommended that I try it, so I opened Deep Seek, selected the deep thinking mode, and asked it, "What will the global hydrogen energy industry look like in 2025?" It responded with, "Green hydrogen will dominate applications, and storage and transportation infrastructure will determine the pace of development." This led me to reflect:

I. Green Hydrogen Dominates Applications

1. Continuous Growth in Green Hydrogen Capacity

Green hydrogen, produced by water electrolysis using renewable electricity, is key to achieving energy transition and carbon neutrality goals. According to a research report by Guojin Securities, 2025 marks the settlement period for the medium and long-term hydrogen energy plan, and the hydrogen energy and fuel cell industries are expected to enter a phase of rapid growth. By the end of 2024, China will have completed the construction of over 80 green hydrogen projects, with a capacity of 109,000 mt/year, doubling from the end of 2023 and essentially achieving national-level targets. Globally, green hydrogen capacity is also expanding rapidly. According to IRENA, global green hydrogen trade volume is expected to reach 12 million mt by 2025, accounting for 15% of total hydrogen demand.

2. Expanding Application Fields

The widespread application of green hydrogen is crucial for driving its industrial development. In the chemical sector, green hydrogen has become an important alternative to traditional gray hydrogen. By the end of 2024, China's downstream green hydrogen projects for chemical applications are planned to produce over 5 million mt/year, accounting for approximately 70% of the total. Additionally, green hydrogen applications in transportation, construction, and aerospace are being actively explored. Particularly in the shipping and steel industries, driven by strong policies, green hydrogen shows promising prospects. For example, the European HYBRIT project and China Baowu's Zhanjiang base have achieved million-mt-level green steel capacity, significantly reducing carbon emissions per ton of steel.

3. Intensifying Competition in Technology Routes

The development of the green hydrogen industry is also accompanied by intensified competition in technology routes. In electrolyzer technology, alkaline electrolyzers (ALK) dominate the Chinese market due to their low material costs, while Europe and the US are betting on PEM technology (fast response, suitable for fluctuating green electricity). Chinese producers like Peric Hydrogen are deeply investing in PEM technology, potentially triggering global competition in technology routes. Additionally, technological patent layouts in core areas such as liquid hydrogen/LOHC storage and transportation and high-power fuel cells have become focal points for enterprises.

II. Storage and Transportation Infrastructure Determines Development Speed

1. High Storage and Transportation Costs

The storage and transportation of hydrogen, as a bridge connecting hydrogen production and application, are critical for the efficient utilization of hydrogen energy. However, the difficulty and high cost of hydrogen storage and transportation have long been bottlenecks restricting the development of the hydrogen energy industry. As a gaseous substance, hydrogen's low density, low liquefaction temperature, and reactive nature make its storage and transportation challenging and less safe. In the hydrogen energy industry chain, storage and transportation costs typically account for 30% of total costs, and in some cases, even up to 40%.

2. Continuous Innovation in Storage and Transportation Technology

To reduce storage and transportation costs and improve efficiency, enterprises and research institutions are continuously exploring new technologies. Liquid organic hydrogen carrier (LOHC) technology, which achieves hydrogen storage and release through reversible hydrogenation and dehydrogenation reactions, offers advantages such as stable properties of hydrogenated substances, high safety, and simple storage methods. China National Chemical Engineering Group and Hydrogenious Technologies have established integrated demonstration facilities in Beijing and Shanghai Jinshan, supplying 400 kg of hydrogen daily, achieving significant advantages in stability, safety, purity, and cost. Additionally, hydrogen-rich liquid compounds such as liquid ammonia and methanol are being studied as hydrogen carriers.

3. Accelerated Construction of Storage and Transportation Infrastructure

The construction of storage and transportation infrastructure is key to advancing the hydrogen energy industry. To accelerate this, governments and enterprises worldwide are increasing investment. The EU plans to build 40,000 km of hydrogen pipelines by 2030, primarily by retrofitting existing natural gas pipelines. China is also actively promoting the construction of hydrogen storage and transportation infrastructure, including hydrogen refueling stations and hydrogen pipelines. However, challenges such as insufficient technological maturity, high investment costs, and an incomplete policy environment still hinder progress.

III. Key Focus Areas for Enterprises

1. Resource Binding: Securing Strategic Nodes Like Wind and Solar Hydrogen Production Bases and Port Hubs

Wind and solar hydrogen production bases are crucial sources of green hydrogen production, while port hubs are key nodes for hydrogen storage, transportation, and application. Enterprises need to actively secure these strategic nodes to ensure stable resource supply and market channels. By establishing wind and solar hydrogen production bases, enterprises can ensure the sustainability of green hydrogen production; by developing port hubs, they can build hydrogen storage, transportation, and application networks to enhance market competitiveness.

2. Deepening Application Scenarios: Establishing First-Mover Advantage in Policy-Driven Sectors Like Shipping and Steel

Shipping and steel are important sectors for hydrogen energy applications and are strongly policy-driven. In these sectors, hydrogen energy has significant potential to replace traditional energy sources. Enterprises need to deeply explore application scenarios in these industries and develop hydrogen energy technologies and products tailored to their characteristics to establish a first-mover advantage. For example, in the shipping sector, enterprises can develop hydrogen-powered vessels and refueling facilities; in the steel industry, they can promote hydrogen-based direct reduced iron technology to reduce carbon emissions.

3. Technology Investment: Patent Layout in Core Areas Like Liquid Hydrogen/LOHC Storage and High-Power Fuel Cells

Core technologies such as liquid hydrogen/LOHC storage and high-power fuel cells are critical to the development of the hydrogen energy industry. Enterprises need to increase R&D investment in these areas to gain core patents and technological advantages. Through patent layouts, enterprises can protect their technological achievements, prevent technology leakage and infringement, and leverage patents for technology licensing and collaboration to drive the hydrogen energy industry's development.

IV. Case Studies

1. Accelerated Implementation of Green Hydrogen Projects

In recent years, green hydrogen projects have been implemented at an accelerated pace globally. For example, Saudi Arabia's NEOM, Australia's Asian Renewable Energy Hub, and Egypt's Suez Canal project in North Africa have become major global green hydrogen export bases. These projects utilize abundant local renewable energy resources to build large-scale water electrolysis facilities, delivering green hydrogen worldwide. Their successful implementation provides strong support for the development of the hydrogen energy industry.

2. Innovative Practices in Storage and Transportation Technology

In terms of storage and transportation technology innovation, some enterprises have achieved significant results. For instance, Kawasaki Heavy Industries in Japan has commercialized a -253°C liquid hydrogen transport ship, providing a feasible solution for long-distance liquid hydrogen transportation despite high energy consumption. Additionally, the LOHC storage and transportation technology developed by China National Chemical Engineering Group and Hydrogenious Technologies has achieved good results in demonstration applications. These innovative practices offer new ideas and methods for addressing hydrogen storage and transportation challenges.

3. Expanding and Deepening Application Scenarios

In terms of application scenarios, hydrogen energy is continuously expanding and deepening. For example, in the transportation sector, the use of fuel cell vehicles and hydrogen-powered drones is gradually increasing; in the industrial sector, projects such as hydrogen-based direct reduced iron and green ammonia/methanol are being rapidly advanced. These expansions and deepening of application scenarios inject new vitality and momentum into the development of the hydrogen energy industry.

V. Conclusion and Outlook

In summary, the hydrogen energy industry in 2025 is expected to exhibit the trend of "green hydrogen dominating applications and storage and transportation infrastructure determining development speed." As a vital component of clean energy, green hydrogen is driving profound global transformations. However, the hydrogen energy industry still faces numerous challenges and bottlenecks, particularly in the storage and transportation segment. To accelerate the industry's development, enterprises need to actively secure resource nodes, deepen application scenarios, and strengthen technological investments. Meanwhile, governments and society should increase support, improve the policy environment, enhance infrastructure construction, and promote technological innovation and industrial upgrading. With joint efforts from all parties, the hydrogen energy industry is poised for a broader development horizon.

Written by: SMM Hydrogen Energy Analyst Sofia Xin Shi - 13515219405 (WeChat available). If you are also interested in hydrogen, feel free to contact me for discussion.